Kadenwood

Perspectives

Positions, not predictions.

Written positions on how transactions actually behave: process, structure, pricing, and the arithmetic underneath them. We publish what the evidence supports and date every figure.

Editorial standard

Every figure is dated and attributed. Where two studies frame the same question differently, we say which framing we used. Where the evidence is thin, we say that instead of forecasting.

Deal execution

August 2026

One in three signed LOIs never closes.

The cause distribution behind broken deals, what the widely quoted 70% failure statistic actually measures, and which failure causes a seller controls.

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Outlooks

August 2026

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Strip out the megadeals and the record M&A year is down 4%.

Middle-market M&A into 2027: deal volume, process length, and where buyers are actually closing over the next eighteen months.

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You will probably never IPO. Prepare like you might.

The listing window into 2027: where it sits for issuers weighing a listing against a sale, and how long it stays open.

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Half of all firms take two quotes before choosing a lender.

Credit markets into 2027: spreads, structures, and lender appetite in the lower-middle and middle market as refinancings come due.

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Energy took a quarter of US private equity deal value. Software lost two thirds.

Sector M&A into 2027: activity across business services, energy, real assets and infrastructure, and industrials, and where it has thinned.

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The sellers queued ahead of you are 13,509 deep, and they are on a clock.

DPI into 2027: distributions against paid-in capital, and what the pace of realizations is doing to the next vintage.

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Private credit’s default rate is 2.51% and 6.0%. Both are correct.

Special situations into 2027: defaults, extensions, and the maturity calendar, and what a borrower controls before a lender calls.

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The library

New positions publish as their underlying data is refreshed rather than on a calendar. Nothing is gated.

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Important information

The material on this page and in the articles it links to is general market commentary, provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, is not a recommendation regarding any security, issuer, or transaction, and should not be relied upon in making any investment decision. Nothing here is an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Views expressed are those of the named authors as at the date shown on each article, are subject to change without notice, and are not tailored to any reader's circumstances. Economic and market observations that look forward reflect assumptions that may prove incorrect and are not a prediction of actual results. Market data and third-party statistics are drawn from sources believed reliable as at the date of writing, but their accuracy and completeness are not warranted and they have not been independently verified. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kadenwood Group is not a registered broker-dealer, investment adviser, or exempt market dealer in any jurisdiction. How securities activities are conducted is described in our Disclosures.