What did Mergermarket's nine-month M&A figures show?
A total close to a record, reached with fewer deals. Mergermarket's figures, published 1 October 2026, put global M&A for the first nine months of the year at $4.44 trillion, up 27 percent, across 32,419 deals, a count 1 percent lower.
The total a year earlier was $3.48 trillion. Mergermarket ranks the period as the second strongest first nine months on its record, behind the $4.55 trillion of the same months of 2021. June alone recorded $678.1 billion, the highest monthly figure on that record.
By region, North America accounted for 53 percent of the value, at $2.37 trillion across 10,230 transactions, up 33 percent and the strongest nine months Mergermarket has recorded there. Europe, the Middle East and Africa reached $1.15 trillion, up 51 percent and the region's strongest year to date since 2007. Asia-Pacific fell 5 percent to $817.4 billion across 8,227 transactions.
Mergermarket's own reading of the split between value and count is that confidence in striking larger transactions remains strong, while smaller deals are taking longer to complete amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Its data are stated as correct at 29 September 2026.
How much of the nine-month total sits in the largest deals?
About 63 percent of it sits in 380 transactions. Mergermarket counts a record 380 deals of $2 billion or more, worth $2.81 trillion together. Within them, 60 megadeals of $10 billion or more account for $1.54 trillion, a record 35 percent of global value.
The 63 percent is our arithmetic on Mergermarket's figures, and so is what follows from it. The 380 largest transactions are a little over 1 percent of the 32,419 deals counted. The other 32,039 share about $1.63 trillion, or roughly 37 percent of the value.
A companion article on this site argued in August, from a different data set, that the record year shrinks once the largest transactions are removed. Mergermarket's count adds something that argument did not have. The number of deals did not grow at all. When value rises by more than a quarter and the count slips, the typical transaction is not the one moving the total.
Figures from different providers will not match. A second companion article carries Boston Consulting Group's reading, on LSEG data, of deal value up 15 percent over the first eight months of the year. Mergermarket's 27 percent covers nine months, and the two do not count the same set of transactions. We have not reconciled them. They agree on the direction and on where the value is concentrated.
| Slice of the market | Announced value | Number of deals | Share of nine-month value |
|---|---|---|---|
| All announced deals | $4.44tn | 32,419 | 100% |
| Megadeals of $10bn or more | $1.54tn | 60 | 35% |
| Deals of $2bn or more, megadeals included | $2.81tn | 380 | about 63% |
| All other deals | about $1.63tn | 32,039 | about 37% |
| All deals, change on the first nine months of 2025 | +27% | -1% | not applicable |
How much did M&A slow in the third quarter of 2026?
Enough that less than 28 percent of the nine-month value arrived in it. Mergermarket reports that more than 72 percent of the total came in the first half of 2026. An even spread across three quarters would have put a third in each.
The release states no global total for the third quarter, and we derive none beyond the bound that 72 percent implies: something under about $1.24 trillion of the $4.44 trillion, by our arithmetic.
The detail it does give is for North America. Deal value there fell 23 percent in the third quarter from the same quarter a year earlier, to $560.4 billion, the lowest since the second quarter of 2025. In the same passage, megadeals number six in the third quarter, against 19 in the second and 12 in the first.
Mergermarket attributes the slowdown to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Its head, Lucinda Guthrie, says it is still seeing a good flow of sale processes coming to market after an August slowdown. She frames the open question as whether uncertainty over growth, geopolitics and financing conditions will prevent deals from closing in the fourth quarter, or whether confidence returns quickly enough to sustain the first half's momentum.
Preliminary third-quarter figures from another data provider were reported in the press in September. We could not read that report at source, so none of its numbers appears here.
“A near-record nine months and a slow third quarter are both true, and neither describes the sale of a mid-sized company. What an owner can read from them is the temper of buyers: willing at scale, careful below it, and slower to close than to sign.”
What are private equity firms doing in this market?
Selling more than they are buying, by announced value. Mergermarket puts global financial sponsor investment for the nine months at $584.2 billion, down 11 percent on the year, and sponsor exits at $605.3 billion, up 12 percent.
The gap of about $21 billion between the two is our subtraction, and it should be read loosely. These are announced values for two different sets of transactions, not a cash account. The direction is the point. Mergermarket says investors became more selective and that higher costs weighed on fundraising.
Europe ran the other way on the buying side. Sponsor investment there rose 18 percent, with an average deal value of $950 million, the highest on Mergermarket's record. European exits rose 30 percent, with an average of $1.4 billion. Averages of that size describe large transactions. They say little about a sponsor buying a founder-owned company.
For a founder the two lines pull in one direction. A sponsor that is more selective about what it buys asks more of each company it looks at. A sponsor that is selling brings its own portfolio companies to the same buyers a founder hopes to reach. A companion article on this site covers why sponsor buyers move slowly.
What should an owner preparing a sale take from the nine-month figures?
That the headline describes a few hundred transactions, and that everything else did not grow in number. An owner should plan a process for a selective market that slowed over the summer, not for a record year.
Three practical readings follow, and all three are ours, not Mergermarket's. The first is timetable. If smaller deals are taking longer to complete, as Mergermarket says, the months between a signed letter of intent and closing deserve as much planning as the months before it. A companion article on how long a sale takes sets out where the extra time goes.
The second is certainty ahead of headline price. In a quarter when the open question is whether deals close, a bid's financing, its conditions and the buyer's record of completing count for more. Ask each bidder what has to happen between signing and closing, and who has to approve it.
The third is preparation. Processes are still coming to market, on Mergermarket's account, so a company launching in the autumn will not be alone in front of buyers. The ones that hold a buyer's attention are those whose numbers reconcile on the first request.
A note on what these figures are. They are announced deal values from one provider, correct at 29 September 2026, and totals of this kind can change as late-reported deals are added. Mergermarket's full report was not read. Everything here comes from its release and its published summary of 1 October 2026.
As of October 2026
Sources: Mergermarket, an ION service, 9M26 M&A Highlights, as set out in its release "Global M&A momentum slows in 3Q26 after record-chasing first half" and in the published summary of its data insight "Megadeals propel M&A toward nine-month record despite third-quarter slowdown", both dated 1 October 2026 and read first-hand, with all data stated as correct at 29 September 2026, for: global M&A of $4.44 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, up 27 percent from $3.48 trillion a year earlier, across 32,419 deals, a count down 1 percent; the ranking of the period as the second strongest first nine months on record after $4.55 trillion in 2021; $678.1 billion in June as the highest on record; more than 72 percent of the nine-month total falling in the first half; 60 megadeals of $10 billion or more worth $1.54 trillion, a record 35 percent of global value; a record 380 transactions of $2 billion or more worth $2.81 trillion; North America at 53 percent of global value, $2.37 trillion across 10,230 transactions, up 33 percent, with third-quarter value down 23 percent on the year to $560.4 billion, the lowest since the second quarter of 2025, and megadeals of six, 19 and 12 in the third, second and first quarters; Europe, the Middle East and Africa at $1.15 trillion, up 51 percent, the strongest year to date since 2007; Asia-Pacific down 5 percent to $817.4 billion across 8,227 transactions; global financial sponsor investment down 11 percent to $584.2 billion and exits up 12 percent to $605.3 billion; European sponsor investment up 18 percent with an average deal value of $950 million and European exits up 30 percent with an average of $1.4 billion; Mergermarket's reading that smaller deals are taking longer to complete; and the remarks of Lucinda Guthrie, Head of Mergermarket. Mergermarket's full report was not read. The 63 percent and 37 percent shares, the 32,039 deals and about $1.63 trillion outside the largest 380, the share of deals those 380 represent, the bounds of under 28 percent and under about $1.24 trillion for the third quarter, and the gap of about $21 billion between sponsor exits and sponsor investment are our arithmetic. The companion articles cited for deal value with and without the largest transactions, for Boston Consulting Group's eight-month reading, for how long a sale takes and for why sponsor buyers move slowly carry their own sources. The readings on timetable, certainty of closing and preparation are ours.
Corrections: factual errors are corrected on the page and the correction dated. Write to admin@kadenwoodgroup.com.
This position sits within our sell-side M&A advisory practice.