How large is the investment Canada is being asked to make?
Very large, and mostly forecast rather than committed. PwC Canada, on an Oxford Economics forecast published on 10 June 2026, puts cumulative Canadian infrastructure spending between 2024 and 2050 at 4.7 trillion US dollars in 2023 prices.
The split is heavily weighted to the ground. Resources infrastructure, the facilities and networks that extract, process and move oil, gas, metals and minerals, is the largest sector at 1.6 trillion US dollars cumulatively. Transportation follows at 912 billion, projected to grow 48 percent, then power at 605 billion, projected to grow 57 percent, and digital at 237 billion. Defence is the fastest-growing sector, projected to rise 389 percent between 2024 and 2050.
On an annual basis PwC puts Canadian infrastructure spending at 145 billion US dollars today, rising to 210 billion by 2050. It also finds that Canada spends 6.6 percent of GDP on infrastructure against 7.4 percent among high-performing peers, and that closing that gap requires an additional 34 billion US dollars a year by 2050.
The capital-raising side opened in Toronto on 14 September. The Government of Canada's investment summit, hosted with CPP Investments and PSP Investments on 14 and 15 September, is built around an ambition to catalyse one trillion dollars of total investment in Canada over five years, and the government's Major Projects Office lists 27 initiatives representing more than 192 billion dollars. Apollo's reading on the opening day is that the summit will be a useful lens on how that ambition turns into projects and committed capital, which is the right test.
What is Canada's business sector starting from?
A base that has not re-equipped. Statistics Canada puts real machinery and equipment investment at 85.6 billion chained 2017 dollars at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, which is 3.8 percent below its peak in the first quarter of 2008.
The economy did not stand still over those eighteen years. Real GDP was 37.1 percent larger in the second quarter of 2026 than in the first quarter of 2008. On our own approximate arithmetic, machinery and equipment investment has fallen from about 4.8 percent of real GDP to about 3.4 percent over the same span, so the equipment spend per unit of output has shrunk by roughly 30 percent.
Structures tell the same story from a different peak. Real non-residential structures investment stood at 130.7 billion chained 2017 dollars in the second quarter of 2026, 20.4 percent below its level at the end of 2014, when the last resources investment cycle topped out. Total real business gross fixed capital formation was 428.0 billion, 4.9 percent below its first-quarter 2022 high.
Apollo draws the international comparison in its 14 September note: Canadian machinery and equipment investment is still below its 2007 level in real terms, broader business investment has barely grown and has underperformed even the euro area, while the United States has expanded steadily. It also notes that investment stirred in the second quarter, and the Statistics Canada series agrees: real machinery and equipment investment rose 5.2 percent on the quarter. One quarter is a start, not a trend.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Cumulative infrastructure spending, 2024 to 2050 | 4.7 trillion US dollars | PwC, Oxford Economics |
| Resources infrastructure, cumulative | 1.6 trillion US dollars | PwC, Oxford Economics |
| Transportation, cumulative | 912 billion US dollars | PwC, Oxford Economics |
| Power, cumulative | 605 billion US dollars | PwC, Oxford Economics |
| Additional annual spending to reach peer share of GDP | 34 billion US dollars a year | PwC, Oxford Economics |
| Summit ambition, total investment over five years | One trillion dollars | Government of Canada |
| Real machinery and equipment investment, Q2 2026 against Q1 2008 peak | 3.8% below | Statistics Canada |
| Real non-residential structures investment, Q2 2026 against Q4 2014 peak | 20.4% below | Statistics Canada |
| Real business gross fixed capital formation, Q2 2026 against Q1 2022 peak | 4.9% below | Statistics Canada |
| Real GDP, Q2 2026 against Q1 2008 | 37.1% higher | Statistics Canada |
“The forecast is a demand number and the investment series is a capacity number, and at the moment they point in opposite directions. When a country tries to build this much with a supplier base that has spent eighteen years not adding equipment, the constraint is not the capital at the top of the project. It is the crews, the fleet and the balance sheets one layer down.”
Where does the money land for a private company?
Mostly one layer below the project. Pension funds and infrastructure investors own the asset, and the contractors, fabricators, equipment dealers, engineering firms and maintenance operators are paid to build and run it. That layer is where most Canadian middle market companies in these sectors sit.
The two sets of numbers in this article describe that layer from opposite sides. PwC's forecast is the work coming towards it. Statistics Canada's series is the equipment it has been buying to meet work of any kind, and on that evidence the capacity to absorb a step change in demand has not been built in advance. PwC names workforce constraints as one of the biggest risks to delivery and says Canada does not produce enough tradespeople to meet current demand.
When demand outruns capacity, capacity is what gets priced. An owner with certified crews, a maintained fleet and a record of delivering on schedule holds the thing a project owner cannot buy quickly and a sponsor cannot build from scratch. That is a stronger position in a sale or a financing than the headline forecast suggests on its own, because it does not depend on any single project being approved.
It is worth being precise about what a buyer will pay for, though. PwC is explicit that Canada can exceed its forecast and can also fall short of it. A buyer or a lender will price contracted backlog, repeat customers and utilization of the equipment already owned. The forecast supports a thesis. It does not support a multiple.
What should an owner or a sponsor do before the contracts are let?
Finance capacity against contracts, not against the forecast. Equipment bought ahead of a signed award is a bet on the pipeline; equipment financed against a contracted backlog is an asset with a known use. Lenders in equipment and asset-based finance underwrite the second far more readily, and on better terms.
Build the evidence before the demand arrives. Utilization by unit, backlog by customer and margin on completed work are the numbers a buyer will use to decide whether a company can absorb more volume or will need to be recapitalized to do so. An owner who can show the fleet is already running near capacity has a financing case and a sale case at the same time.
Sponsors should test the equipment base as part of the entry price. A platform assembled in this layer inherits whatever investment its founders deferred, and a catch-up in fleet and plant is a cost the next owner pays out of the hold. Where the summit's projects do convert, the companies that can take on the work without that catch-up will be the ones that compound.
Watch the conversion, not the announcements. The summit will produce commitments on 14 and 15 September. The numbers that will matter to a private company in this layer are the ones that follow: awards let, equipment orders placed, and a second and third quarter of rising machinery and equipment investment in the Statistics Canada series.
As of September 2026
Sources: Apollo Global Management, The Daily Spark, "Canada Investment Summit", by Huw van Steenis, published 14 September 2026 and read first-hand at apollo.com, for the observations that Canadian machinery and equipment investment remains below its 2007 level in real terms, that broader business investment has barely grown and has underperformed the euro area while the United States expanded steadily, that investment stirred in the second quarter, and that the summit is a lens on how the ambition converts into projects and committed capital. PwC Canada, Mobilizing Canada's 4.7 trillion US dollar infrastructure opportunity (title figure written out), report and release of 10 June 2026, built on an Oxford Economics forecast in 2023 US dollar prices, for cumulative spending of 4.7 trillion US dollars between 2024 and 2050, resources at 1.6 trillion, transportation at 912 billion and 48 percent growth, power at 605 billion and 57 percent growth, digital at 237 billion, defence growth of 389 percent, annual spending of 145 billion rising to 210 billion, spending of 6.6 percent of GDP against 7.4 percent for high-performing peers, the additional 34 billion a year by 2050, and the workforce and forecast-range statements. Government of Canada, Canada Investment Summit 2026, date modified 2 September 2026, for the summit dates and hosts, the ambition to catalyse one trillion dollars of total investment over five years and the Major Projects Office count of 27 initiatives representing more than 192 billion dollars. Statistics Canada, table 36-10-0104-01, Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterly, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, through the second quarter of 2026, for real machinery and equipment investment of 85.6 billion, non-residential structures of 130.7 billion, business gross fixed capital formation of 428.0 billion and the quarterly change; the percentages against earlier peaks and against real GDP, and the approximate shares of GDP, are our arithmetic on those published levels. The reading of the forecast as demand and the series as capacity, the location of the opportunity in the contractor and supplier layer, and all guidance to an owner or a sponsor are ours. The companion article on energy transition services carries its own sources.
Corrections: factual errors are corrected on the page and the correction dated. Write to admin@kadenwoodgroup.com.
This position sits within our equipment financing practice.